The salvo combat model with a sequential exchange of fire

Abstract

This paper develops a version of the stochastic salvo combat model in which the exchange of fire is sequential, rather than simultaneous. This sequential-fire version is built by modifying the equations in the original simultaneous-fire version. The performance of the sequential model is tested by comparing its outputs to those of a Monte Carlo simulation. The fit between the model and the simulation is very close, especially for the mean and standard deviation of losses. The model is then applied to the Battle of the Coral Sea. The results suggest that attacking first would have given the American force a larger advantage than that provided by an extra aircraft carrier.