Parameter selection for modeling of epidemic networks

Abstract

The accurate modeling of epidemics on social contact networks is difficult due to the variation between different epidemics and the large number of parameters inherent to the problem. To reduce complexity, evolutionary computation is used to create a generative representation of the epidemic model. Previous gains from the use of local, verses global, operators are further explored to better balance exploration and exploitation of the genetic algorithm. A typical parameter study is conducted to test this new local operator and the new method of point packing is utilized as a proof of concept to perform a better search of the parameter space. All experiments from both approaches are tested against nine epidemic profiles. The point-packing driven parameter search demonstrates that the algorithm parameters interact substantially and in a non-linear fashion, and also shows that the good parameter settings are problem specific.